Orange and Durham Counties First Quarter 2007 Market Report
The residential real estate market in Orange and Durham counties had both positive and negative indicators during the first quarter of 2007. The following are answers to some frequently asked questions.
Are people moving in or out of the area?
Both counties have had population increases. The 2005 population estimate for Durham County shows a 1.3% increase from the 2004 population estimate. The 2005 population estimate for Orange County shows a 6% increase from the 2002 population estimate. The majority of inbound transfers to both counties come from Wake County, Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) and Cook County (Illinois). The people that left both counties went to Wake, Mecklenburg and New York City.
What is going on in the job market?
Both counties have had workforce increases. Per the N.C. Employment Security Commission, the February, 2007 workforce in Durham County increased 3.3%, while the Orange County workforce increased 3.45%. The current unemployment rate in Durham County is 3.7% and the current rate in Orange County is 3.3%.
What is going on with interest rates?
They have gone down. The national average for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 5.8%, compared to 6.43% in April of 2006. The national average for a 15 year fixed rate mortgage is 5.55%, compared to 6.1% in April of 2006.
The remaining numbers presented were all obtained from Triangle MLS.
Give me some numbers:
The average list price in Durham County is $243,275, an increase of 7.7% compared to last year. The average list price in Orange County is $448,012, a decrease of 1.48% compared to last year. The average sold price in Durham County is $204,700, up 14.6% compared to last year. The average sold price in Orange County is $323,600, down 1.97% compared to last year. There were 910 closings in Durham County during the quarter, an increase of 4.6% compared to the first quarter of 2006. There were 310 closings in Orange County during the quarter, a decrease of 9.6% compared to the first quarter of 2006.
What is going on with housing located in the Chapel Hill/Carrboro high school district?
The current list price for all housing within the Carrboro/Chapel Hill/East Chapel Hill high school district is $516,000 with an average days on market of 87. The current average closed price through the first 3 months is $384,000 with an average days on market of 80. The overall current supply in this district is 2 months and the supply for detached housing product priced below $300,000 is also 2 months.
What is happening with inventory?
Both counties have seen increases in overall inventory and re-sale inventory. Overall inventory in Durham County increased 6.88% to 2,236 listings. Durham County re-sale inventory increased 2.7% to 1,709 listings. Overall inventory in Orange County increased 22% to 776 listings. Orange County re-sale inventory increased 25% to 627 listings.
Is anyone looking at residential housing?
There were 9,453 showings of active listings within Durham County during the month of March. This represents 10% of all showing activity within the TMLS. The majority of showings were in the Southern Durham market. There were 3,949 showings of active listings within Orange County during the month of March. This represents 4% of all showing activity within the TMLS. The majority of showings were in the Chapel Hill/Carrboro market.
How does the current supply compare with other area’s in the Triangle?
Both counties have a higher current supply than seen in competing counties. The current supply for all housing located in each county is 7 months. The current supply of housing located in the combined counties of Durham, Orange, Johnston and Wake is 6 months. The national current supply is approaching 8 months. The current supply is a snapshot measure of supply and demand, stating the current inventory supply in months based upon sales pace during a given period of time.
Are house prices appreciating?
Yes they are; the current average for re-sales within the past 18 months in Durham County is 4.34%, the average rate in Orange County has been 7.61%. The rate for housing in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2006 was 5.9%. The rate for the South Atlantic region was 7.35% and the rate for North Carolina was 8.19%.
Where are people buying?
Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Grove Park were the top Durham County sellers during the first quarter. Providence Glen, Southern Village, Lake Hogan Farms and Ashbury were the top Orange County sellers.